Oct 2009 19
Earthquake October 18 – November 2* 2009 0
Posted In News
TABLE UNDER CONSTRUCTION;
Table 23a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period
from October 18 – November 2* 2009
Please scroll down through table for any entries
Source from :
http://nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm
Find keyword on this page for “Sumatra”, M7.5-M9.5
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REGION |
Expected |
Observed |
Accuracy compared to mid range (%) |
Observed |
| Alaska Anchorage Region within ≈500 km of a center point 100km South of Anchorage, at Lat 60.317 and Lon -149.79 |
M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 21+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 18th Oct) |
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| California ‘Northern’ newly defined within 400 km of a center point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86 |
M2.9-M4.9 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Nth California & Sth Oregon Coast & Off Coast newly defined within 400 km of Crescent City, California Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20 |
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| California ‘Southern’ newly defined within 350 km of Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083 |
M3.0-M5.0 expected about Oct 20+/-3 days (posted 0014 hours 18th Oct)
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| Caribbean Puerto Rico Area within ≈250 km of a center 60 km NNE of San Juan at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96 |
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| Chile Northern Region newly defined within ≈375 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402 |
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| China Sichuan Region within 500 km of a center point at Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4° |
M5.0-M7.0 expected about Oct 21+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 18th Oct) |
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| China Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89 |
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| Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60 |
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| Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4 |
M4.2-M6.2 expected about Oct 21+/-3 days (posted 0204 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Greece within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E |
M3.6-M5.6 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0059 hours 19th Oct) | |||
| Guatemala - El Salvador Region newly defined within ≈500 km from Santa Ana, El Salvador at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558 |
M4.0-M6.0expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0320 hours 19th Oct) | |||
| Hawaii within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 19.9 Lon -155.9 on Island of Hawaii |
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| Hokkaido, Japan within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 |
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| Honshu Japan Southern Region newly defined within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040 |
M5.0-M7.0 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Italy ‘Rome Region’ within ≈400 km of Rome centered at Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488 |
M2.5-M4.5 expected about Oct 26+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 18th Oct) |
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| Islamabad Region, Pakistan within ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan) |
M3.7-M5.7 expected about Oct 25+/-3 days (posted 0415 hours 18th Oct) |
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| Java – Sunda Strait Region (includes southern Sumatra) new region within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762 |
M3.5-M5.5 expected about Oct 28+/-3 days (posted 0536 hours 18th Oct)
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Kazakhstan, |
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| Mexico Southern Region within ≈500 km of Acapulco Mex., Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89 |
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| New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville New region within ≈500 km Sulu, New Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9 |
M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 22+/-3 days (posted 0415 hours 18th Oct) |
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| New Zealand Northern Region within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island, Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island |
M3.7-M5.7 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 18th Oct) |
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| New Zealand Southern Region new definition within ≈500 km from Gore, NE of Invercargill, at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937, South Island NZ |
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| Seattle USA -Vancouver Island Region CANADA within ≈500 km radius of Forks, W of Seattle, USA Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38 |
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| Peru Central – Southern Region (new) within ≈500 km of a center at Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83 |
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| Philippines Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589 The center is 315 ENE from Manila. |
M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 20+/-3 days (posted 0014 hours 18th Oct) |
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| Solomons Region new region includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands, within ≈500 km of a center at Ngalikomba on Nth Coast of Guadalcanal Island, Solomon Islands at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31 |
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| Spain Region within ≈400 km of Reillo at Lat 39.905 and Lon -1.875 |
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| Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67 |
M7.5-M9.5 expected about Oct 28+/-3 days (our models now indicate at least a 50:50 chance of this event by 31st December, 2009). (Posted 0014 hours 18th Oct). |
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| Sumatra Southern Region within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14 |
M5.0-M7.0 expected about Oct 31+/-3 days (posted 0014 hours 18th Oct) |
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| Taiwan Region newly defined within ≈500 km of a center about 300 km E of Taiwan at Lat 23.92 Lon 124.58 |
M6.0-M8.0 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0230 hours 18th Oct) |
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Turkey |
M2.7-M4.7 expected about Oct 22+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 18th Oct) |
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| Vanuatu- Santa Cruz Islands (new zone) within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15 |
M3.9-M5.9 expected about Oct 27+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 19th Oct) |