Oct 2009 19

TABLE UNDER CONSTRUCTION;

Table 23a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

from October 18 – November 2* 2009

Please scroll down through table for any entries

Source from :
http://nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm

Find keyword on this page for “Sumatra”, M7.5-M9.5


REGION

Expected
Magnitude
Ranges
& Dates

Observed
Maximum
Magnitude

Accuracy compared to mid range (%)

Observed
Date &     Location

Alaska
Anchorage Region
within ≈500 km of a
center point 100km
South of Anchorage,
at Lat 60.317 and
Lon -149.79
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Oct 21+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 18th Oct)
California ‘Northern’
newly defined
within 400 km of a center
point 140 km East from Sacramento, California, at
Lat 38.64 Lon -119.86
M2.9-M4.9
expected about
Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 19th Oct)
Nth California & Sth Oregon
Coast & Off Coast
newly defined
within 400 km of
Crescent City, California
Lat 41.76 Lon -124.20
California
‘Southern’

newly defined
within 350 km of
Escondido, NNE of San Diego, Southern CA at
Lat 33.116 Lon -117.083
M3.0-M5.0
expected about Oct 20+/-3 days (posted 0014 hours 18th Oct)

Caribbean
Puerto Rico Area
within ≈250 km of a center
60 km NNE of San Juan
at Lat 19.00 Lon -65.96

Chile
Northern Region
newly defined
within ≈375 km of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
at Lat -23.624 Lon -70.402

China
Sichuan Region
within 500 km
of a center point at
Lat 31.0°  Lon 103.4°
M5.0-M7.0
expected about Oct 21+/-3 days (posted 0315 hours 18th Oct)

China
Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai
within ≈500 km
of a center point at
Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89
Colombia within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America
Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60
Fiji-Tonga
Region
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Oct 21+/-3 days (posted 0204 hours 19th Oct)
Greece
within Lat 36-40°N
and Lon 20-25°E
M3.6-M5.6 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0059 hours 19th Oct)
Guatemala -
El Salvador
Region
newly defined
within ≈500 km from
Santa Ana, El Salvador
at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558
M4.0-M6.0expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0320 hours 19th Oct)
Hawaii
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat 19.9 Lon -155.9
on Island of Hawaii
Hokkaido,
Japan
within ≈500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62
Honshu Japan
Southern Region
newly defined
within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040
M5.0-M7.0
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0530 hours 19th Oct)
Italy
‘Rome Region’
within ≈400 km of Rome centered at
Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488
M2.5-M4.5 expected about Oct 26+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 18th Oct)
Islamabad
Region,
Pakistan
within ≈425 km of
Islamabad, Pakistan
(Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07)
(includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)
M3.7-M5.7
expected about Oct 25+/-3 days (posted 0415 hours 18th Oct)
Java – Sunda Strait Region
(includes southern Sumatra) new region
within ≈450 km from
a center in Sunda Strait
at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762
M3.5-M5.5 expected about Oct 28+/-3 days (posted 0536 hours 18th Oct)

Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan to
Afghanistan Region
(and part of Southern Xinjiang, China)
new region
within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan
at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22

Mexico
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of Acapulco Mex., Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89

New Britain/ New Ireland/   Bougainville
New region
within ≈500 km Sulu, New
Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Oct 22+/-3 days (posted 0415 hours 18th Oct)
New Zealand
Northern Region
within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island,
Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2,
including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
M3.7-M5.7
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0030 hours 18th Oct)
New Zealand
Southern Region
new definition
within ≈500 km from
Gore, NE of Invercargill,
at Lat -46.1, Lon 168.937,
South Island NZ
Seattle USA
-Vancouver Island Region CANADA
within ≈500 km radius of Forks,  W of Seattle, USA
Lat 47.95 Lon-124.38
Peru
Central – Southern Region (new)
within ≈500 km of a center
at Lat -13.17 Lon -73.83
Philippines Region
within ≈500 km
of a center point at
Lat 15.72 Lon 123.589
The center is 315 ENE from Manila.
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Oct 20+/-3 days (posted 0014 hours 18th Oct)

Solomons
Region
new region
includes region west of Santa Cruz Islands,
within ≈500 km of a center
at Ngalikomba on Nth Coast
of Guadalcanal Island,
Solomon Islands
at Lat -9.43 Lon 160.31
Spain Region
within ≈400 km of
Reillo at Lat 39.905
and Lon -1.875

Sumatra
Northern Region

within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67
M7.5-M9.5
expected about Oct 28+/-3 days (our models now indicate at least a 50:50 chance of this event by 31st December, 2009). (Posted 0014 hours 18th Oct).
Sumatra
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14
M5.0-M7.0
expected about Oct 31+/-3 days (posted 0014 hours 18th Oct)
Taiwan Region
newly defined
within ≈500 km of a center about 300 km E of Taiwan
at Lat 23.92  Lon 124.58
M6.0-M8.0
expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0230 hours 18th Oct)

Turkey
‘Western Region’
within ≈350 km of Usak, Turkey, Lat 38.68 Lon 29.4

M2.7-M4.7 expected about Oct 22+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 18th Oct)

Vanuatu-
Santa Cruz Islands (new zone) within ≈500 km from Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
Lat -15.51 Lon 167.15
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Oct 27+/-3 days (posted 0350 hours 19th Oct)

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